Un estudio socioeducativo sobre la evaluación del crecimiento económico en países seleccionados
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17162/au.v11i4.769Palavras-chave:
Políticas agrarias, empleo agrario, crecimiento económico, panel ARDL, estudio social.Resumo
El sector agrícola, que tiene una amplia gama de efectos económicos y sociales, tiene una importancia estratégica debido a la renta nacional, el empleo, los gastos de consumo, el suministro de materias primas a otros sectores y su participación en las exportaciones. En este contexto, este documento revisa el debate sobre el papel de la agricultura en la promoción del crecimiento económico en una selección de países agrícolas seleccionados. Este estudio analiza los vínculos entre las variables agrícolas y el crecimiento del producto interno bruto con la ayuda de la prueba de cointegración, el enfoque Autoregressive Distributed Lag Limit Test (ARDL) para el período relevante, Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) y PP test (PMG). Los resultados muestran que el aumento sostenible de la renta agrícola cambia positivamente la renta nacional y es la fuerza impulsora del crecimiento; Se encontraron pruebas contundentes que muestran que el aumento de la mano de obra agrícola disminuye el ingreso nacional a largo plazo. Esta fuerte evidencia apoya la hipótesis de crecimiento agrícola que muestra que; En los últimos años, las discusiones sobre la relación entre el concepto de crecimiento sostenible y la política agrícola se han vuelto más prominentes. Por ello, se recomienda que cada vez más países contribuyan a resolver los problemas del crecimiento económico siguiendo y aplicando métodos de productividad agrícola.Downloads
Referências
Allcott, H., Lederman, D., & López, R. (2006). Political institutions, inequality, and agricultural growth: The public expenditure connection. Washington, DC., USA: The World Bank. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-3902)
Andrés-Domingo, J. A., & Hernando-Castellet, I. (1997). Does inflation harm economic growth?: evidence for the OECD. Documentos de trabajo/Banco de España, 9706. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=896636
Ansari, S. A., & Khan, W. (2018). Relevance of declining agriculture in economic development of South Asian countries: An empirical analysis. AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 10, 3-14. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/276108/.doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.276108
Armas, E. B., Gómez-Osorio, C., & Moreno-Dodson, B. (2012). Agriculture public spending and growth: The example of Indonesia. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. Washington, D. C.: World Bank.
Arnold, T., Blokland, K., Engel, A., Ifejika Speranza, C., Losch, B., Michel, B., ... & Zvarimwa, M. (2019). An Africa-Europe agenda for rural transformation. doi: 10.7892/boris.130615
Aydoğan, B., & Vardar, G. (2020). Evaluating the role of renewable energy, economic growth and agriculture on CO2 emission in E7 countries. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 39 (4), 335-348. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2019.1686380
Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35 (2): 407-443. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/1995/q2/inflation-and-economic-growth
Black, D. C., Dowd, M. R. & Keith, K. (2001). The inflation/growth relationship: evidence from state panel data. Applied Economics Letters, 8 (2): 771-774. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850110044202
Burdekin, R. C., Goodwin, T., Salamun, S., & Willett, T. D. (1994). The effects of inflation on economic growth in industrial and developing countries: is there a difference? Applied Economics Letters, 1 (10), 175-177. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048594357952
Castaneda, R., Doan, D., Newhouse, D. L., Nguyen, M., Uematsu, H., & Azevedo, J. P. (2016). Who are the poor in the developing world? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 7844. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2848472
Çelik, D. (2020). Inflation across income groups: the case of Turkey [Master's thesis, Middle East Technical University].
Chowdhury, A. (2002). Does inflation affect economic growth? The relevance of the debate for Indonesia. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 7 (1), 20-34. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860120110452
Cobre, A. F., Surek, M., Vilhena, R. O., Böger, B., Fachi, M. M., Momade, D. R., ... & Pontarolo, R. (2021). Influence of foods and nutrients on COVID-19 recovery: A multivariate analysis of data from 170 countries using a generalized linear model. Clinical Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clnu.2021.03.018
COMCEC (2018). Improving Agricultural Market Performance: Developing Agricultural Market Information Systems. The Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation. Comcec Coordination Office. February, 2018.
Dawson, P. J. (2005). Agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries. Agricultural economics, 33 (2), 145-152. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2005.00358.x
De Roest, K., Ferrari, P., & Knickel, K. (2018). Specialization and economies of scale or diversification and economies of scope? Assessing different agricultural development pathways. Journal of Rural Studies, 59, 222-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.04.013
Dhahri, S., & Omri, A. (2020). Foreign capital towards SDGs 1 & 2—Ending Poverty and hunger: The role of agricultural production. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 53, 208-221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.02.004
Elleby, C., Domínguez, I. P., Adenauer, M., & Genovese, G. (2020). Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global agricultural markets. Environmental and Resource Economics, 76(4), 1067-1079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00473-6
Fan, S., Gulati, A., & Thorat, S. (2008). Investment, subsidies, and pro‐poor growth in rural India. Agricultural Economics, 39 (2), 163-170. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00328.x
FAO 1. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC/visualize. Accessed 26.01.2020
FAO. (2020, a). Food Outlook - Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: June 2020. Food Outlook, 1. Rome. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9509en
FAO. (2020, b). Policy tools and publications to assist countries to respond to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/policy-support/coronavirus-pandemic/en/
Gillman, M., Harris, M., & Mátyás, L. (2009). Inflation Theory in Economics: Welfare, Velocity, Growth and Business Cycles. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203880180
Gillman, M., & Kejak, M. (2005). Contrasting models of the effect of inflation on growth. Journal of Economic Surveys, 19 (1), 113-136. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00241.x
Gollin, D. (2010). Agricultural productivity and economic growth. Handbook of agricultural economics, 4, 3825-3866. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0072(09)04073-0.
Haggblade, S., Hazell, P., & Reardon, T. (2010). The rural non-farm economy: Prospects for growth and poverty reduction. World development, 38 (10), 1429-1441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.06.008
Hanjra, M. A., & Qureshi, M. E. (2010). Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food policy, 35 (5), 365-377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.05.006
Havemann, T., Negra, C., & Werneck, F. (2020). Blended finance for agriculture: exploring the constraints and possibilities of combining financial instruments for sustainable transitions. Agriculture and Human Values, 37 (4), 1281-1292.
Hodge, D. (2006). Inflation and growth in South Africa. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30 (2), 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bei051
Hwa, E. C. (1988). The contribution of agriculture to economic growth: some empirical evidence. World development, 16 (11), 1329-1339. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(88)90208-2
IFPRI. (2020). Poverty and food insecurity could grow dramatically as COVID-19 spreads. (D. Laborde Debucquet, W. Martin, & R. Vos, Editors) Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_02
Jatuporn, C., Chien, L. H., Sukprasert, P., & Thaipakdee, S. (2011). Does a long-run relationship exist between agriculture and economic growth in Thailand. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3 (3), 227-233. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/97e0/eefcf939aba65921385cacbc15df040d0b68.pdf)
Khan, W., Jamshed, M., & Fatima, S. (2020). Contribution of agriculture in economic growth: A case study of West Bengal (India). Journal of Public Affairs, 20 (2), e2031. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2031
Kılıç, O., Boz, İ., & Eryılmaz, G. A. (2020). Comparison of conventional and good agricultural practices farms: A socio-economic and technical perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120666
Kim, S., & Willett, T. D. (2000). Is the negative correlation between inflation and growth real? An analysis of the effects of the oil supply shocks. Applied Economics Letters, 7 (3), 141-147. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048500351681
Lains, P., & Pinilla, V. (Eds.). (2008). Agriculture and economic development in Europe since 1870. London: Routledge Taylor and Francis Group.
Liu, Z., He, C., Zhou, Y., & Wu, J. (2014). How much of the world’s land has been urbanized, really? A hierarchical framework for avoiding confusion. Landscape Ecology, 29 (5), 763-771. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-014-0034-y
López, R., & Galinato, G. I. (2007). Should governments stop subsidies to private goods? Evidence from rural Latin America. Journal of Public Economics, 91 (5-6), 1071-1094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2006.10.004
Matsuyama, K. (1992). Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth. Journal of economic theory, 58 (2), 317-334. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(92)90057-O
Meijerink, G., & Roza, P. (2007). The role of agriculture in development. Markets, Chains and Sustainable Development Strategy and Policy Paper, 5. http://www.boci.wur.nl/UK/Publications/
Menker, S. (2017). A global food crisis may be less than a decade away. TED Global 2017. https://www.ted.com/talks/sara_menker_a_global_food_crisis_may_be_less_than_a_decade_away
Michler, J. D. (2020). Agriculture in the process of development: A micro-perspective. World Development, 129, 104-118. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104888
Miller, M. M. (2020). Economic Development at the Community Level: Creating Local Wealth and Resilience in Developing Countries. London: Routledge.
Motley, B. (1998). Growth and inflation: a cross-country study. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1, 15-28. http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/econrev/98-1/15-28.pdf
Nie, W., Li, T., & Zhu, L. (2020). Market demand and government regulation for quality grading system of agricultural products in China. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 56, 102-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2020.102134
Norton, G. W., Alwang, J., & Masters, W. A. (2014). Economics of agricultural development: World food systems and resource use. London: Routledge.
Omorogiuwa, O., Zivkovic, J., & Ademoh, F. (2014). The role of agriculture in the economic development of Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 10 (4). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244019899045
Pelek, D. (2019). Syrian refugees as seasonal migrant workers: Re-construction of unequal power relations in Turkish agriculture. Journal of Refugee Studies, 32 (4), 605-629. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/fey050
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16 (3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Pingali, P. (2007). Agricultural growth and economic development: a view through the globalization lens. Agricultural Economics, 37, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2007.00231.x
Praburaj, L., Design, F., & Nadu, T. (2018). Role of agriculture in the economic development of a country. Shanlax International Journal of Commerce, 6 (3), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1323056
Pulighe, G., & Lupia, F. (2020). Food first: COVID-19 outbreak and cities lockdown a booster for a wider vision on urban agriculture. Sustainability, 12(12), 5012. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125012
Rakhmetullina, S., Isiksal, A. Z., & Chimezi, J. O. (2017). Economic Growth, Agriculture and Industrialization in Nigeria: an ARDL Bound Testing Approach. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (2).
Raza, S. A., Ali, Y., & Mehboob, F. (2012). Role of agriculture in economic growth of Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 83, 180-186. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32273/
Reardon, T., Berdegué, J., & Escobar, G. (2001). Rural nonfarm employment and incomes in Latin America: overview and policy implications. World development, 29 (3), 395-409. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(00)00112-1
Sandalcilar, A. R. (2012). Türkiye'de tarımsal ihracat, tarım dışı ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin nedensellik analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 49 (5), 65-76. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48064/607741
Seyis, F., Yurteri, E., Ozcan, A., & Savsatlı, Y. (2018). Organic tea production and tea breeding in Turkey: challenges and possibilities. Ekin Journal of Crop Breeding and Genetics, 4 (1), 60-69. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/445475
Singh, M., Kumar, P., Kumar, V., Solanki, I. S., Mcdonald, A. J., Kumar, A., & Malik, R. K. (2020). Intercomparison of Crop Establishment Methods for İmproving Yield and Profitability in The Rice-Wheat System of Eastern India. Field Crops Research, 250, 107-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2020.107776
Subaşı, O.S., & Ören, M.N., (2013). Türkiye’de tarımsal Ar-Ge harcamaları ve tarımsal büyüme ilişkileri. Akdeniz Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 26 (2), 99-104. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/akdenizfderg/issue/1563/19375
Suryahadi, A., Hadiwidjaja, G., & Sumarto, S. (2012). Economic growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia before and after the Asian financial crisis. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 48 (2), 209-227. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2012.694155
Tansel, C. B. (2019). Reproducing Authoritarian Neoliberalism İn Turkey: Urban Governance and State Restructuring İn The Shadow of Executive Centralization. Globalizations, 16 (3), 320-335. https://doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2018.1502494
Terin, M., Aksoy, A., & Güler, İ. O. (2013). Tarımsal Büyümeye Etki Eden Ekonomik Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Iğdır Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3 (3), 41-50.
https://www.tarim.com.tr/upload/haberler/Portakal%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasa%20Raporu%202020%20ocak.pdf.
Uyan, M. (2017). Optimal site selection for solar power plants using multi-criteria evaluation: A case study from the Ayranci Region in Karaman, Turkey. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 19 (9), 2231-2244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-017-1405-2
UNDP. (2021). Covid-19 Rapid Impact Assessment on the Agri-Food Sector and Rural Areas in Turkey. UNDP-FAO-IFAD Publications. April, 2021
WB. (2020). Pandemic, Recession: The Global Economy in Crisis. World Bank Global Economic Prospects. June, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1553-9
Yeni, O., & Teoman, Ö. (2020). The Agriculture–Environment Relationship and Environment-based Agricultural Support Instruments in Turkey. European Review, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1062798720001015
Yesilnacar, M. I., & Cetin, H. (2005). Site selection for hazardous wastes: a case study from the GAP area, Turkey. Engineering Geology, 81 (4), 371-388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.07.012
Downloads
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2021 Mehmet Çanakcı
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
1. Política propuesta para revistas de acceso abierto
Los autores/as que publiquen en esta revista aceptan las siguientes condiciones:
- Los autores/as conservan los derechos de autor y ceden a la revista el derecho de la primera publicación, con el trabajo registrado con la licencia de atribución de Creative Commons, que permite a terceros utilizar lo publicado siempre que mencionen la autoría del trabajo y a la primera publicación en esta revista.
- Los autores/as pueden realizar otros acuerdos contractuales independientes y adicionales para la distribución no exclusiva de la versión del artículo publicado en esta revista (p. ej., incluirlo en un repositorio institucional o publicarlo en un libro) siempre que indiquen claramente que el trabajo se publicó por primera vez en esta revista.
- Se permite y recomienda a los autores/as a publicar su trabajo en Internet (por ejemplo en páginas institucionales o personales) antes y durante el proceso de revisión y publicación, ya que puede conducir a intercambios productivos y a una mayor y más rápida difusión del trabajo publicado (veaThe Effect of Open Access).
