Aspectos metodológicos de la evaluación de la eficiencia de la política

social regional en la superación de la orfandad social

Methodological aspects of assessing the efficiency of regional social policy in

overcoming of social orphanhood

Sergey V. Babakaev

, Olga S. Kulyamina

, Evgeniya M. Bronnikova

Marina V. Vinogradova

& Valentina P. Leonova

Russian State Social University, Moscow, Russia

12345

Orcid ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9332-9347

Orcid ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7715-5551

Orcid ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5409-9726

Orcid ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5051-9404

Orcid ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9332-9347

Recibido: 13 de febrero de 2020 Aceptado: 17 de julio de 2020

Resumen

Entre las cuestiones metodológicas de estudiar el problema de la orfandad social, un lugar

importante está ocupado por la búsqueda de marcadores efectivos para evaluar la dinámica, por

un lado, y la efectividad de la política social para superar la orfandad social, por el otro. Ese

intento de evaluar sistemáticamente la escala y la gravedad del fenómeno, así como los factores

clave que determinan su dinámica. Sin embargo, estos enfoques no nos permiten identificar la

conexión entre el trabajo social y la dinámica de mejorar la situación con la orfandad social en

la región. El estudio presentado propone un nuevo modelo para evaluar la dinámica de la

orfandad social. Su diferencia con otros enfoques metodológicos es que el énfasis principal está

en evaluar la orientación del complejo de cambios en los procesos de identificación, colocación

de huérfanos y cancelación de decisiones sobre su transferencia a las familias. Este modelo nos

permite evaluar el papel de la política social en la superación de la orfandad social. En este

modelo, desarrollamos métodos de autor para clasificar las regiones de Rusia por la dinámica

de los indicadores integrados en el índice de "auspiciosidad" de los cambios en la orfandad

social. Además, el autor presenta un modelo que evalúa la situación en la región desde el punto

de vista del "índice de eficiencia del apoyo social" para superar la orfandad social. Los modelos

utilizados para evaluar la dinámica de la orfandad social se han probado como una herramienta

para identificar marcadores clave de la eficiencia de la política social.

Palabras clave: investigación metodológica, orfandad social, política social, metodología de

evaluación, apoyo social.

Correspondencia al autor

E-mail: babakaev.sv@mail.ru

Apuntes Universitarios, 2020: 10(4), octubre-diciembre

ISSN: 2304-0335 DOI:https://doi.org/10.17162/au.v10i4.508

apuntesuniversitarios.upeu.edu.pe

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ISSN 2078-4015(en línea)

236

Abstract

Among the methodological issues of studying the problem of social orphanhood, an important

place is occupied by the search for effective markers for assessing dynamics on the one hand,

and the effectiveness of social policy in overcoming social orphanhood on the other. That

attempt to systematically evaluate the scale and severity of the phenomenon, as well as the key

factors that determine its dynamics. However, these approaches do not allow us to identify the

connection between social work and the dynamics of improving the situation with social

orphanhood in the region. The presented study proposes a new model for assessing the

dynamics of social orphanhood. Its difference from other methodological approaches is that the

main emphasis is on assessing the orientation of the complex of shifts in the processes of

identifying, placement of orphans and canceling decisions on their transfer to families. This

model allows us to assess the role of social policy in overcoming social orphanhood. In this

model, we developed authoring methods for ranking the regions of Russia by the dynamics of

indicators integrated into the "auspiciousness" index of changes in the social orphanhood. Also,

the author presents a model that assesses the situation in the region from the point of view of

the "social support efficiency index" to overcome the social orphanhood. The models used to

assess the dynamics of social orphanhood have been tested as a tool for identifying key markers

of the efficiency of social policy.

Keywords: methodological research, social orphanhood, social policy, evaluation

methodology, social support.

Introduction

The search of the ways of the valid evaluation of the social work efficiency to overcome

social orphanhood in the regions are relevant methodological problem. The search for adequate

methods and tools for measuring two key processes and trends depends on its decision. First,

the dynamics of the development of social orphanhood (Orphanhood in the regions of Russia,

2018). Secondly, the determination of the conformity of the social policy pursued in the region

with the scope and content of the problem of social orphanhood (Reznichenko et al, 2018).

Thus, the methodological issues of solving this problem includes two main aspects. On the one

hand, the identification of the dynamics of social orphanhood, on the other hand, the search for

the main markers of the focus of social policy (Gudarenko, 2014). Currently, there are a number

of approaches determining the scale and dynamics of social orphanhood, within which a system

of social indicators has developed the aspects of a negative social phenomenon (Sushko, 2017).

However, the authors of the approaches acknowledge the limitations in the use of ratings based

on aggregate indicators of social orphanhood (Orphanhood in the regions of Russia, 2019).

The first limitation is that the ratings only allow us to demonstrate the scale of the

problem of social orphanhood in the region and do not allow us to assess the effectiveness of

the regional state policy to overcome social orphanhood. The second limitation is that the rating

of a region reflects only its place in comparison with other regions in terms of the scale of

manifestation of social orphanhood. Even if it's indicators improves, it may still fall back due

to the fact that other regions have had higher average in overcoming of the social orphanhood.

The third limitation is the use of the official state statistics. The official statistics, as a result of

the interagency approach, are characterized by some inconsistency between the categories and

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different interpretations in the use of indicators and methods for measuring them. Our approach,

based on state statistics, is aimed at overcoming the first two restrictions. This was achieved in

three ways. First, give a rating of the regions based on the shifts that have occurred in terms of

improving the situation. Secondly, to develop a new regional index of the effectiveness of social

policy in terms of overcoming social orphanhood. Thirdly, by means of the opportunity to

conduct a comparative analysis of the index values reflecting favorable shifts in the situation of

social orphanhood and the index fixing the effectiveness of social policy in terms of creating

favorable conditions for overcoming social orphanhood.

The novelty of the study is in implementation the approach to the study of the problem

of social orphanhood in a new way, the regions are classified and ranked according to the

“auspiciousness” index of the development in situation of social orphanhood (Kvon et al, 2017;

Zaitseva et al., 2018). Basically, most studies examine the situation of orphanhood from with

the severity of the problem. The novelty of the approach is in the new methodology for assessing

the combination of available statistical data that reflects the processes and phenomena, by

different aggregation of different indicators and empirical referents.

The new approach to aggregation of various indicators of social orphanhood dynamics

is based on the desire to isolate the aspect of the research area that has not yet been studied.

First of all, to determine the place and role of social policy in the region. Social policy is

considered as a key factor in the localization of the problem of social orphanhood, which

determines the dynamics of the development of this process. Achieving this goal of the study

will allow us to identify hypothetical growth points and drivers of social development that

determine the positive direction of shifts in solving the social orphanhood's problems.

The relevance of the study is the need for a tool to assess the development of the situation

at an early stage of the growth of negative tendencies. As such a tool, it is proposed to use the

“auspiciousness” index of social orphanhood dynamics of indicators with a subsequent

assessment of the situation by the index of the effectiveness of social policy. Therefore, the

practical significance of the approach lies in the ability to recognize the problem of social

orphanage at an early stage.

Methods

The theoretical and methodological basis of a new approach to assessing the

effectiveness of social policy in overcoming of social orphanhood is the concept of anomie. It

explains the phenomenon of social orphanhood by the dynamics of the modern life, which

contributes to the breakdown of social connections and institutions, including family relations

(Roche, 2019; Miranda, Tadros & Molla, 2020). As a result of the growth of anomie in society,

social orphanhood increases (Vasilieva & Frolova, 2019; Maribel & Roger, 2018; Lukina &

Trifonova, 2018). The reasons for the appearance of social orphanhood, as well as the position

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of orphans in society, if we consider them as a part of theory of anomie, require an integrated

approach to explanation and solution (Eremina, 2014; Lukina & Trifonova, 2018; Manerova &

Markina, 2018; Cooley et al., 2020).

Therefore, the basis of the methodological requirements for the study of this

phenomenon is a holistic systematic approach to identifying ways to localize social orphanhood

with a set of measures related to a social policy. In this theoretical and methodological context,

public policy aimed at overcoming social orphanhood, in our opinion, should be considered in

a wide social context (Istomina, 2018; Tazik, et al 2019). It is necessary to conduct an unified

social policy designed to minimize the consequences of the anomicity of modern society.

Currently, the approach to solve the problem of social orphanhood is narrowed. The main

research attention does not go beyond the scope of direct measures to identify, arrange social

orphans and provide social support to poor families and people in difficult situations. At the

same time, other activities of social policy having a direct impact on the development of the

situation with social orphanhood in the region, often not enough researched (Manerova &

Markina, 2018; Palibina, 2018; Chursina & Rodina, 2018).

During the construction of a new model for assessing the dynamics of the situation with

social orphanhood, the following main research tasks were solved:

 the main indicators of the dynamics of the processes in three blocks of problems of

social orphanhood are fixed (the emergence of orphans; the placement of orphans;

the return of orphans), fixing the positive (favorable) vector of development of the

situation with social orphanhood;

 the Russian regions were classified and ranked according to indicators reflecting the

dynamics of the development of the social orphanhood with their further

stratification by clusters (groups) depending on the identified trends and the general

vector of its development;

 11 regions representing the main clusters (groups) of the development of the social

orphanhood were selected for a more detailed analysis and testing of the new

approach. Further, a comparative analysis of the influence of factors on the

dynamics of development based on a desk study was carried out.

 points of growth and drivers of social development are determined on the basis of

verification and selection of scientific hypotheses that express connections between

different characteristics of the object and the subject of research.

Thereupon, the object of the study is the process of developing a new method for

determining the dynamics of changes in the situation in Russian regions with social orphanhood

(the time period 2015-2018), aimed at identifying the main shifts in the development of the

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situation. The focus of the discussion of this method is aimed at the possibility of its application

and determining the validity of the results.

The subject of the research is the sequence of constructing a research model for

classifying regions and identifying the main conditions and factors affecting the processes under

study, as well as possible growth points and drivers of social development, contributing to an

improvement of the social orphanhood.

The construction of new models, the assessment of auspiciousness of shifts with social

orphanhood, and the effectiveness of social policy are based on typical indicators used in

statistical reporting forms (Russian Regions. Socio-economic indicators , 2017). Data sources

are the Federal state statistics service (2019) of the Russian Federation (Diagram Analysis the

state of the protection of children's rights in the region) with the exception of demographic

indicators (the proportion of children in each region); statistical reporting form No. 103-RIK,

responsible for collecting information: the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian

Federation, and the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation since 2018 (Summary

reports on the form of federal statistical observation No. 103-RIK 2018 for Russia and the

subjects of the Russian Federation, 2019).

Results

Approaches, general concept and the main

hypotheses of the study

The main criteria and indicators of the "tension" of the situation are variables reflecting

different aspects of the situation with orphanhood, including:

 children in need of a family arrangement . The indicators of the total number of

orphans and children left without parental care who are not brought up in the family

(blood, foster care, adoption) are recorded in the “children's data bank”;

 the placement of children in families. This indicator reflects the proportion of

children who are transferred to families (returning to blood parents, taken under

guardianship or adopted) in the same year in which they were left without parental

care;

 cancellation of family transfer decisions. This indicator shows the number of

children whom decisions on adoption or guardianship are canceled for in the

reporting year;

 return of children to blood families. This indicator shows the number of cases

related to the elimination of the reasons for restriction or deprivation of parental

rights.

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To assess the severity of the situation with social orphans, the reporting form No. 103 -

RIK of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation is used (Summary reports on the

form of federal statistical observation No. 103-RIK 2018 for Russia and the subjects of the

Russian Federation, 2019; Dehdar, et al 2019).

The importance of this approach is in an objective vision of the scale of social

orphanhood in the country and in each federal region based on the construction of aggregated

indixes by a set of indicators. It allows to rank regions according to the severity and scale of

manifestations of social orphanhood, to evaluate the dynamics of indicators. However, this

approach has several limitations. In particular, it does not allow to capture the positive systemic

shifts that occur in the development of the situation, to identify the turning points (bifurcation

points) of its improvement in order to detect the main drivers of social development related to

the localization of this problem. Therefore, the concept of the study is based on the classification

and ranking of regions by the quality of systemic changes in the development of the situation,

which allows us to evaluate the favorability of changes.

The main hypothesis of the study is that regions in a favorable zone of shifts in social

orphanhood, in comparison with relatively unfavorable regions, will be characterized by a

higher social support efficiency index. Confirmation of this hypothesis may mean the existence

of a direct link between the social policy in the region and shifts in the situation of social

orphanhood. The following hypotheses were put forward:

 in the underfunding of social policy regions, where social support for families,

mothers and children is low, there is a high probability that the region will be in an

unfavorable zone of changes in the situation of social orphanhood;

 in the regions where families in difficult life situations do not receive proper social

support, the risks of negative dynamics of social abandonment will be higher;

 the aggravation of the problem with orphanhood will be observed in the regions

where social support for motherhood and childhood is poorly conducted,

insufficient assistance to the protection of children rights is provided;

 the living arrangements for orphans, the problem of the return and the appearance

of orphans will be more pronounced in the regions where the social support policy

is less implemented. This concerns governmental support for parents and family;

legislative support of the rights of child; ensuring governmental standards for key

indicators children's quality of life; support for the activities of youth and children's

organizations by the state.

Conducting of methodological study and testing the hypotheses is based on the study of

the practical implementation of regional social policies aimed at supporting of motherhood and

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childhood, protecting the rights of the child based on the social support efficiency index.

A way to assess the dynamics and identify turning points in the

development of the situation with social orphanhood to

calculate the “auspiciousness” index

The methodology for assessing the dynamics of the situation with social orphanhood

includes a sequence of operations implemented in five main stages.

At the first stage, a list of indicators of the main aspects of social orphanhood dynamics

is formed. The dynamics indicators of the identification of orphans “I”, the placement of

identified orphan “P”, and the cancellation of transferring a child to a family decisions "C" is

calculated for Russian Federation and its regions from the following basis:

 "I" - the percentage of children without parental care identified during the year in

the total number of children living in the region (0-17 years old);

 "P" - the percentage of the children placed in families, including returned to parents,

in the total number of identified children left without parental care;

 "C" - the percentage of canceled decisions of transfer a child to a family, in the total

number of the placed children.

At the second stage, these indicators are transformed into points depending on the

favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) direction of development of the situation with the

dynamics of this indicator. A point value of + (plus) one point get indicators of positive

dynamics of the situation. A point value - (minus) one point get indicators negative dynamics

of the situation. The following scoring occurs depending on trends:

 dynamics of indicators "I " and "C" has a negative value for the observed period

(decrease) +1 point; increase -1 point;

 dynamics of indicator "P" has a negative value for the observed period (decrease) -

1 point; increase +1 point;

At the third stage, there is a further transformation of the obtained points with the

quantitative dynamics of changes in each indicator. The quantitative values of the dynamics of

the sign (changes in percentages/100) are added to the score with a positive or negative pole.

The introduction of correction factor makes it possible not only to classify the changes, but to

determine the "weight" of changes for the period. This makes it possible to measure the

qualitative characteristics of the dynamics to distribute the regions according to the main

clusters and to rank them depending on the quantitative parameters of the changes. To eliminate

random fluctuations (a strong dispersion of the trait) and to equalize the values, a maximum

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oscillation threshold is set (>100%). Therefore, the maximum fluctuation in the values of each

indicator is located in a given continuum.

At the fourth stage, on the basis of weighing the values of the indicators, their

normalization and leveling of the dynamic series (freeing from random deviations), they are

further transformed by aggregating three indicators into the “auspiciousness” index. This index

reflects the configurations of the process of improving the situation with orphanhood and the

place of the region on the scale of index, which is in a continuum of values from +1 (maximum

of a favorable development) to -1 (maximum of unfavorable development). The value "0"

represents a turning point (bifurcation) trend. "Auspiciousness" index= "I" (summary score) +

“P” (summary score) + “C” (summary score)/maximum total value of indicators.

At the fifth stage, the regions of the Russian Federation are distributed among four

clusters: “green”, “yellow”, “orange”, “red”. Clusters reflect the situation of social orphanhood

in terms of its systemic shifts in the identification of orphans “I”, the placement of identified

orphans "P", and the cancellation of transferring a child to a family decisions "C".

The regions in the “green” cluster (the most favorable changes), are characterized by the

decrease of the indicator “I”; the increase of the indicator “P”; the decrease of indicator “C” in

a period.

The regions in the “yellow” cluster (two indicators are favorable, one is unfavorable),

characterized by the decrease of the indicator “I”; the increase or decrease of the indicator “P”;

the decrease or increase of indicator “C” in a period.

The regions in the “orange” cluster (one indicator is favorable, two are unfavorable),

characterized by the decrease of the indicator “I”; decrease of the indicator “P”; the increase of

indicator “C” in a period.

The regions in the “red” cluster (three indicators are unfavorable), characterized by the

increase of the indicator “I”; decrease of the indicator “P”; the increase of indicator “C” in a

period.

After the classification of regions to the different clusters, a rating is based on

distribution according to the “auspiciousness” index of the situation development. Further, in

dependence on the values of the "auspiciousness" index, regions are ranked by the order of

higher to the lower values. The highest value rating is in the regions of the "green" cluster, the

lowest is in the “red” cluster.

A method of constructing a “Social Support Efficiency Index” and

the procedure for adding indicators for assessing the

effectiveness of social policy

The effectiveness of social policy is recorded by support of families and people in

difficult situations. To assess the effectiveness of social support, we developed an aggregated

index that allows us to build an integrated rating of the regions. This index is formed on the

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basis of aggregation of a number of statistical indicators presented in the summary information

about protection of the children rights in the region for 2018 (Summary reports on the form of

federal statistical observation No. 103-RIK 2018 for Russia and the subjects of the Russian

Federation, 2019).

These indicators (variables and characteristics) were combined into 3 groups: P1 -

indicators of "favorable social effects"; P2 - indicators of "adverse social shifts"; P3 - indicators

of "social support". Indicators of the assessment are calculated as the dynamics for the 3 years,

the assessment was carried out by the sign (growth or decrease).

The social support efficiency index is a total score for indicators based on their weight,

transformed by recalculating the points received from their maximum possible value into the

efficiency scale with a continuum of values from 0 (absolutely ineffective) to 1 (most effective).

Table 1

The main indicators for assessing the effectiveness of social policy for the period 2016-2018

Indicator group

Indicators (variables and characteristics)

of the assessment

Indicators of

assessment and

their scores

Positive

dynamics of

changes in key

indicators of

social

orphanhood

The change in the proportion of orphans

who are brought up in families from the

number of children left without parental

care

1 point - increase

0.5 points - no

change

0 points - decrease

The number of families performing

guardianship free of charge

The number of foster families

The number of adoptive families

The number of parents reinstated in

parental rights

Negative

dynamics of

change in

indicators of

social

disadvantage

The number of deceased minors(0-17

years old)

1 point - decrease

0.5 points - no

change

0 points - increase

The number of marriages of minors

The number of pregnant minors

The number of minors given birth to

children

The number of children requiring drug

treatment

The total number of orphans and children

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Indicator group

Indicators (variables and characteristics)

of the assessment

Indicators of

assessment and

their scores

left without parental care

The number of foster parents with whom

contracts were terminated prematurely by

the initiative of the guardianship authority

because of unfavorable conditions for the

maintenance and education of children in

the foster family

The number of parents deprived of

parental rights

The number of parents limited in parental

rights

The number of disabled children

The proportion of orphans left without

parental care from the number of children

with disabilities

Positive

dynamics of

changes in

indicators of state

and non-state

resource

provision of

social policy

The total number of preschool institutions

1 point - increase

0.5 points - no

change

0 points - decrease

The number of private preschool

institutions

The number of children in foster families

eligible for child support

The proportion receiving alimony from the

number of eligible (of those who have the

right to receive it)

Introduction to the generalized indicator of a wide range of variables reflecting negative

shifts in the situation with the protection of children's rights allows us to monitor indirect

indicators of the low effectiveness of social support for the family, childhood, and motherhood,

based on the negative dynamics of these social processes.

General algorithm for testing tools and hypothesis

Step 1 - We calculate the value of indicators of the "auspiciousness" index based on the

methodology for assessing the situation of social orphanhood. We make a summary table of

distributions for the period.

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Step 2 - We classify and group all the regions of the Russian Federation according to the

"auspiciousness" index, compile their rating, and enter them in the general distribution matrix.

Step 3 - We select from each cluster (groups of regions of a certain color that characterize

the situation with orphanhood) 2-3 regions to conduct a desk study of the main factors and

conditions that determine the development of the situation (favorable and unfavorable trends

and shifts).

Step 4 - We calculate the social support efficiency index based on the form of the

regional reporting of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation (The analysis scheme

of the state of protection of children's rights in the region, 2019) for those regions that are

included in the system analysis group.

Step 5 - We carry out a comparative analysis of the selected regions in different clusters

according to the "auspiciousness" index according to the social support efficiency index in the

region to identify the connection between them.

Step 6 - We collect statistical information to evaluate:

 the severity of the problem of social orphanhood in each region of the Russian

Federation selected for analysis (Orphanhood in the regions of Russia, 2019).

 the socio-economy position of the regions (Rating of the socio-economic situation

of the regions, 2018; Rating agency “RIA Rating” of the media group MIA “Russia

Today”, 2019);

 the place of the region in 2017 according to the main socio-economic indicators

(Regions of Russia, 2017)

Step 7 - We enter the additional information showing the ratings of the extent of

orphanhood, socio-economic status, the place of the region according to the main indicators of

socio-economic development in the database. This will allow us to represent the parameters for

a comparative analysis and search for the connection between indicators that reflect the

influence of various socio-economic factors.

Step 8 - We conduct a comparative analysis of selected regions representing different

groups according to the “auspiciousness” index of changes in the social orphanhood according

to ratings that reflect the system and structural aspects of the socio-economic situation. These

ratings reflect the following aspects: the scale of orphanhood, the integrated rating (scale of the

economy; economic efficiency; budget sphere; social sphere; level of economic and social

development in the region).

Step 9 - We collect information about the social policy in the region. Particular attention

is paid for information, which includes changes in the regulatory framework, contributing to

the removal of the barriers in the development of the social sector, public-private partnership.

Also the information about measures of stimulation of the social sphere, attracting investment

and development in the social sphere is very important. The regional programs and plans for

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the development of the social sphere, the reports about implementation of social policies are

important objects for the search and selection of information. Concepts (strategies) for social

development of the region and programs that express the main models of social policy are of

interest for analysis.

Step 10 - We analyze the information that displays various aspects of social policy and

social development of the region. The analysis is based on the use of different formalized and

unformalized methods of desk research. They allow to perform multi-factor research of the

object. The study is carried out using a combination of analytical methods with the analysis of

direct and indirect data on the object (research and analysis of factors affecting the object of

study, both within its segment and going far beyond the segment, industry, region).

Testing results of a new methodological approach

In order to test the methodological approach, a comparative analysis of the selected

regions, representing different clusters by the "auspiciousness" index of shifts in the social

orphanhood by the social support efficiency index in the region, in order to identify possible

connections between them was presented (table 2).

Table 2

Connection between the clusters of "auspiciousness" of changes in the social orphanhood and

the social support efficiency index

The clusters of "auspiciousness" of changes in the development

social orphanhood and the represented regions

Green

Yellow

Orange

Red

Perm region

Penza region

Vladimir region

Tver region

Yaroslavl region

Krasnoyarsk region

Krasnodar region

Khabarovsk region

Belgorod region

Arkhangelsk region

Novgorod region

The social

support efficiency

index by clusters

0,464

0,447

0,436

0,424

There is a slight inverse connection between the average values of the social support

efficiency index in these clusters and the strengthening of the unsuccessful situation with social

orphans at the level of regional clusters. Of course, it should be noted that the difference in the

values of the index is insignificant, but it goes beyond the measurement error. Thus, in our

scientific experiment, the tendency of dependence of the favorable development indices on the

situation with social orphanhood and the effectiveness of social support is clearly visible. This

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trend may indicate the presence of some direct correlation between the effectiveness of social

support for families and people in difficult life situations, on the one hand, and the decrease in

the dynamics of the unfavorable development of the situation with social orphanhood on the

other hand. And the methodological tools allow us to record the connection between improving

the situation in the regions and the growth of the effectiveness of the social policy.

Discussion

The proposed method for assessing the favorable development of the social orphanhood

allows, in our opinion, to identify both positive and negative shifts in the dynamics of the key

factors and indicators that determine this process at an early stage with a fairly high degree of

validity. Other advantages of this method include not only the possibility of using it to rank the

regions according to the "auspiciousness" index but also to evaluate the impact of social support

measures on the effectiveness of the regional social policy. To realize this opportunity, an

additional social support efficiency index is introduced (social support for families and people

in difficult life circumstances). These results are consistent with researches of Reznichenko et

al (2018), Kvon et al (2017) and Zaitseva et al (2018). Reznichenko et al, 2018 pointed to the

conformity of the social policy based on the region and considered it necessary. These results

are also consistent with the concept of auspiciousness in researchs of Kvon et al (2017) and

Zaitseva et al (2018), which has been considered in the ranking of social orphanhood.

Our scientific experiment revealed the connection between these indexes. From the

point of view of the research methodology, the connection confirms the rather high validity of

the proposed indicators and methods of aggregation of indexes. A serious limitation of the

method is that it does not allow us to fix the extent of manifestation in each region of the social

orphanhood problem on the one hand. On the other hand, methods for detecting the extent of

orphanhood are well developed and widely used in practice.

In sum, the application of our method is aimed at finding turning points in the

development of the situation in order to identify the main causes. Therefore, the use of our

method should be supplemented by old methods for assessing the problems of social

orphanhood in terms of the extent of its prevalence in the region.

Conclusion

The methodological approach for assessing the effectiveness of social policy for

overcoming of social orphanhood has been tested in a limited number of regions representing

the main clusters. These were formed on the basis of using the classification according to the

“auspiciousness” index of the development of the situation with social orphanhood The use of

this index allowed us to classify all regions not only by groups (clusters) representing a

continuum of favorable shifts in the problem of social orphanhood, but also to rank them by

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regions. This classification, which allows to find turning points in the development of the

situation with social orphans, opens up new opportunities in the search and determination of

drivers and barriers for overcoming the negative phenomenon, taking into account the policy

of social support in the regions.

This method makes it possible to conduct a comparative analysis of regions representing

different groups according to the “auspiciousness” index of shifts in the situation with social

orphanhood by ratings that reflect the system and structural aspects of development and the

state of the socio-economic situation.

Additional collection of information on social policy in the region will allow to expand

the possibilities of using the method of evaluating the effectiveness of social policy. Information

that reflects changes in the legal framework helps to remove barriers in the development of the

social sector and the development of public-private partnerships for social support of families

is of particular value. The information about stimulating measures for the development of the

social sphere and attract investment in the development of the social sphere is also of key

importance. The regional programs and plans for the development of the social sphere, reports

on the implementation are important objects of additional analysis within the proposed typology

of regions. They offer considerable opportunities for removing barriers of increasing the

effectiveness of social support for families.

Therefore, it is planned to supplement this method of assessing the effectiveness of

social policies to overcome social orphanhood by developing a specific number of common

contours of regional strategies in choosing the desired measures depending on a particular and

contextual scenario.

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