Aspectos metodológicos de la evaluación de la eficiencia de la política social regional en la superación de la orfandad social Methodological aspects of assessing the efficiency of regional social policy in overcoming of social orphanhood

Among the methodological issues of studying the problem of social orphanhood, an important place is occupied by the search for effective markers for assessing dynamics on the one hand, and the effectiveness of social policy in overcoming social orphanhood on the other. That attempt to systematically evaluate the scale and severity of the phenomenon, as well as the key factors that determine its dynamics. However, these approaches do not allow us to identify the connection between social work and the dynamics of improving the situation with social orphanhood in the region. The presented study proposes a new model for assessing the dynamics of social orphanhood. Its difference from other methodological approaches is that the main emphasis is on assessing the orientation of the complex of shifts in the processes of identifying, placement of orphans and canceling decisions on their transfer to families. This model allows us to assess the role of social policy in overcoming social orphanhood. In this model, we developed authoring methods for ranking the regions of Russia by the dynamics of indicators integrated into the "auspiciousness" index of changes in the social orphanhood. Also, the author presents a model that assesses the situation in the region from the point of view of the "social support efficiency index" to overcome the social orphanhood. The models used to assess the dynamics of social orphanhood have been tested as a tool for identifying key markers of the efficiency of social policy.


Introduction
The search of the ways of the valid evaluation of the social work efficiency to overcome social orphanhood in the regions are relevant methodological problem. The search for adequate methods and tools for measuring two key processes and trends depends on its decision. First, the dynamics of the development of social orphanhood (Orphanhood in the regions of Russia, 2018). Secondly, the determination of the conformity of the social policy pursued in the region with the scope and content of the problem of social orphanhood (Reznichenko et al, 2018).
Thus, the methodological issues of solving this problem includes two main aspects. On the one hand, the identification of the dynamics of social orphanhood, on the other hand, the search for the main markers of the focus of social policy (Gudarenko, 2014). Currently, there are a number of approaches determining the scale and dynamics of social orphanhood, within which a system of social indicators has developed the aspects of a negative social phenomenon (Sushko, 2017).
However, the authors of the approaches acknowledge the limitations in the use of ratings based on aggregate indicators of social orphanhood (Orphanhood in the regions of Russia, 2019).
The first limitation is that the ratings only allow us to demonstrate the scale of the problem of social orphanhood in the region and do not allow us to assess the effectiveness of the regional state policy to overcome social orphanhood. The second limitation is that the rating of a region reflects only its place in comparison with other regions in terms of the scale of manifestation of social orphanhood. Even if it's indicators improves, it may still fall back due to the fact that other regions have had higher average in overcoming of the social orphanhood.
The third limitation is the use of the official state statistics. The official statistics, as a result of the interagency approach, are characterized by some inconsistency between the categories and Revista de Investigación Apuntes Universitarios 2020: 10(4),236 -251 ISSN 2312-4253(impresa) ISSN 2078-4015(en línea) different interpretations in the use of indicators and methods for measuring them. Our approach, based on state statistics, is aimed at overcoming the first two restrictions. This was achieved in three ways. First, give a rating of the regions based on the shifts that have occurred in terms of improving the situation. Secondly, to develop a new regional index of the effectiveness of social policy in terms of overcoming social orphanhood. Thirdly, by means of the opportunity to conduct a comparative analysis of the index values reflecting favorable shifts in the situation of social orphanhood and the index fixing the effectiveness of social policy in terms of creating favorable conditions for overcoming social orphanhood.
The novelty of the study is in implementation the approach to the study of the problem of social orphanhood in a new way, the regions are classified and ranked according to the "auspiciousness" index of the development in situation of social orphanhood (Kvon et al, 2017;Zaitseva et al., 2018). Basically, most studies examine the situation of orphanhood from with the severity of the problem. The novelty of the approach is in the new methodology for assessing the combination of available statistical data that reflects the processes and phenomena, by different aggregation of different indicators and empirical referents.
The new approach to aggregation of various indicators of social orphanhood dynamics is based on the desire to isolate the aspect of the research area that has not yet been studied.
First of all, to determine the place and role of social policy in the region. Social policy is considered as a key factor in the localization of the problem of social orphanhood, which determines the dynamics of the development of this process. Achieving this goal of the study will allow us to identify hypothetical growth points and drivers of social development that determine the positive direction of shifts in solving the social orphanhood's problems.
The relevance of the study is the need for a tool to assess the development of the situation at an early stage of the growth of negative tendencies. As such a tool, it is proposed to use the "auspiciousness" index of social orphanhood dynamics of indicators with a subsequent assessment of the situation by the index of the effectiveness of social policy. Therefore, the practical significance of the approach lies in the ability to recognize the problem of social orphanage at an early stage.

Methods
The theoretical and methodological basis of a new approach to assessing the effectiveness of social policy in overcoming of social orphanhood is the concept of anomie. It explains the phenomenon of social orphanhood by the dynamics of the modern life, which contributes to the breakdown of social connections and institutions, including family relations (Roche, 2019;Miranda, Tadros & Molla, 2020). As a result of the growth of anomie in society, social orphanhood increases (Vasilieva & Frolova, 2019;Maribel & Roger, 2018;Lukina & Trifonova, 2018). The reasons for the appearance of social orphanhood, as well as the position of orphans in society, if we consider them as a part of theory of anomie, require an integrated approach to explanation and solution (Eremina, 2014;Lukina & Trifonova, 2018;Manerova & Markina, 2018;Cooley et al., 2020).
Therefore, the basis of the methodological requirements for the study of this phenomenon is a holistic systematic approach to identifying ways to localize social orphanhood with a set of measures related to a social policy. In this theoretical and methodological context, public policy aimed at overcoming social orphanhood, in our opinion, should be considered in a wide social context (Istomina, 2018;Tazik, et al 2019). It is necessary to conduct an unified social policy designed to minimize the consequences of the anomicity of modern society.
Currently, the approach to solve the problem of social orphanhood is narrowed.

Approaches, general concept and the main hypotheses of the study
The main criteria and indicators of the "tension" of the situation are variables reflecting different aspects of the situation with orphanhood, including: The main hypothesis of the study is that regions in a favorable zone of shifts in social orphanhood, in comparison with relatively unfavorable regions, will be characterized by a higher social support efficiency index. Confirmation of this hypothesis may mean the existence of a direct link between the social policy in the region and shifts in the situation of social orphanhood. The following hypotheses were put forward:  in the underfunding of social policy regions, where social support for families, mothers and children is low, there is a high probability that the region will be in an unfavorable zone of changes in the situation of social orphanhood;  in the regions where families in difficult life situations do not receive proper social support, the risks of negative dynamics of social abandonment will be higher;  the aggravation of the problem with orphanhood will be observed in the regions where social support for motherhood and childhood is poorly conducted, insufficient assistance to the protection of children rights is provided;  the living arrangements for orphans, the problem of the return and the appearance of orphans will be more pronounced in the regions where the social support policy is less implemented. This concerns governmental support for parents and family; legislative support of the rights of child; ensuring governmental standards for key indicators children's quality of life; support for the activities of youth and children's organizations by the state.
Conducting of methodological study and testing the hypotheses is based on the study of the practical implementation of regional social policies aimed at supporting of motherhood and childhood, protecting the rights of the child based on the social support efficiency index.

A way to assess the dynamics and identify turning points in the development of the situation with social orphanhood to calculate the "auspiciousness" index
The methodology for assessing the dynamics of the situation with social orphanhood includes a sequence of operations implemented in five main stages.
At the first stage, a list of indicators of the main aspects of social orphanhood dynamics is formed. The dynamics indicators of the identification of orphans "I", the placement of identified orphan "P", and the cancellation of transferring a child to a family decisions "C" is calculated for Russian Federation and its regions from the following basis: represents a turning point (bifurcation) trend. "Auspiciousness" index= "I" (summary score) + "P" (summary score) + "C" (summary score)/maximum total value of indicators.
At the fifth stage, the regions of the Russian Federation are distributed among four clusters: "green", "yellow", "orange", "red". Clusters reflect the situation of social orphanhood in terms of its systemic shifts in the identification of orphans "I", the placement of identified orphans "P", and the cancellation of transferring a child to a family decisions "C".
The regions in the "green" cluster (the most favorable changes), are characterized by the decrease of the indicator "I"; the increase of the indicator "P"; the decrease of indicator "C" in a period.
The regions in the "yellow" cluster (two indicators are favorable, one is unfavorable), characterized by the decrease of the indicator "I"; the increase or decrease of the indicator "P"; the decrease or increase of indicator "C" in a period.
The regions in the "orange" cluster (one indicator is favorable, two are unfavorable), characterized by the decrease of the indicator "I"; decrease of the indicator "P"; the increase of indicator "C" in a period.
The regions in the "red" cluster (three indicators are unfavorable), characterized by the increase of the indicator "I"; decrease of the indicator "P"; the increase of indicator "C" in a period.
After the classification of regions to the different clusters, a rating is based on distribution according to the "auspiciousness" index of the situation development. Further, in dependence on the values of the "auspiciousness" index, regions are ranked by the order of higher to the lower values. The highest value rating is in the regions of the "green" cluster, the lowest is in the "red" cluster.

A method of constructing a "Social Support Efficiency Index" and the procedure for adding indicators for assessing the effectiveness of social policy
The effectiveness of social policy is recorded by support of families and people in difficult situations. To assess the effectiveness of social support, we developed an aggregated index that allows us to build an integrated rating of the regions. This index is formed on the These indicators (variables and characteristics) were combined into 3 groups: P1indicators of "favorable social effects"; P2 -indicators of "adverse social shifts"; P3 -indicators of "social support". Indicators of the assessment are calculated as the dynamics for the 3 years, the assessment was carried out by the sign (growth or decrease).
The social support efficiency index is a total score for indicators based on their weight, transformed by recalculating the points received from their maximum possible value into the efficiency scale with a continuum of values from 0 (absolutely ineffective) to 1 (most effective).

Table 1
The

General algorithm for testing tools and hypothesis
Step 1 -We calculate the value of indicators of the "auspiciousness" index based on the methodology for assessing the situation of social orphanhood. We make a summary table of distributions for the period.
Step 2 -We classify and group all the regions of the Russian Federation according to the "auspiciousness" index, compile their rating, and enter them in the general distribution matrix.
Step 3 -We select from each cluster (groups of regions of a certain color that characterize the situation with orphanhood) 2-3 regions to conduct a desk study of the main factors and conditions that determine the development of the situation (favorable and unfavorable trends and shifts).
Step 4 -We calculate the social support efficiency index based on the form of the regional reporting of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation (The analysis scheme of the state of protection of children's rights in the region, 2019) for those regions that are included in the system analysis group.
Step 5 -We carry out a comparative analysis of the selected regions in different clusters according to the "auspiciousness" index according to the social support efficiency index in the region to identify the connection between them.
Step 6 -We collect statistical information to evaluate: Step 7 -We enter the additional information showing the ratings of the extent of orphanhood, socio-economic status, the place of the region according to the main indicators of socio-economic development in the database. This will allow us to represent the parameters for a comparative analysis and search for the connection between indicators that reflect the influence of various socio-economic factors.
Step 8 -We conduct a comparative analysis of selected regions representing different groups according to the "auspiciousness" index of changes in the social orphanhood according to ratings that reflect the system and structural aspects of the socio-economic situation. These ratings reflect the following aspects: the scale of orphanhood, the integrated rating (scale of the economy; economic efficiency; budget sphere; social sphere; level of economic and social development in the region).
Step 9 -We collect information about the social policy in the region. Particular attention is paid for information, which includes changes in the regulatory framework, contributing to the removal of the barriers in the development of the social sector, public-private partnership.
Also the information about measures of stimulation of the social sphere, attracting investment and development in the social sphere is very important. The regional programs and plans for the development of the social sphere, the reports about implementation of social policies are important objects for the search and selection of information. Concepts (strategies) for social development of the region and programs that express the main models of social policy are of interest for analysis.
Step 10 -We analyze the information that displays various aspects of social policy and social development of the region. The analysis is based on the use of different formalized and unformalized methods of desk research. They allow to perform multi-factor research of the object. The study is carried out using a combination of analytical methods with the analysis of direct and indirect data on the object (research and analysis of factors affecting the object of study, both within its segment and going far beyond the segment, industry, region).

Testing results of a new methodological approach
In order to test the methodological approach, a comparative analysis of the selected regions, representing different clusters by the "auspiciousness" index of shifts in the social orphanhood by the social support efficiency index in the region, in order to identify possible connections between them was presented (table 2).

Table 2
Connection between the clusters of "auspiciousness" of changes in the social orphanhood and the social support efficiency index There is a slight inverse connection between the average values of the social support efficiency index in these clusters and the strengthening of the unsuccessful situation with social orphans at the level of regional clusters. Of course, it should be noted that the difference in the values of the index is insignificant, but it goes beyond the measurement error. Thus, in our scientific experiment, the tendency of dependence of the favorable development indices on the situation with social orphanhood and the effectiveness of social support is clearly visible. This trend may indicate the presence of some direct correlation between the effectiveness of social support for families and people in difficult life situations, on the one hand, and the decrease in the dynamics of the unfavorable development of the situation with social orphanhood on the other hand. And the methodological tools allow us to record the connection between improving the situation in the regions and the growth of the effectiveness of the social policy.

Discussion
The proposed method for assessing the favorable development of the social orphanhood allows, in our opinion, to identify both positive and negative shifts in the dynamics of the key factors and indicators that determine this process at an early stage with a fairly high degree of validity. Other advantages of this method include not only the possibility of using it to rank the regions according to the "auspiciousness" index but also to evaluate the impact of social support measures on the effectiveness of the regional social policy. To realize this opportunity, an additional social support efficiency index is introduced (social support for families and people In sum, the application of our method is aimed at finding turning points in the development of the situation in order to identify the main causes. Therefore, the use of our method should be supplemented by old methods for assessing the problems of social orphanhood in terms of the extent of its prevalence in the region.

Conclusion
The methodological approach for assessing the effectiveness of social policy for overcoming of social orphanhood has been tested in a limited number of regions representing the main clusters. These were formed on the basis of using the classification according to the "auspiciousness" index of the development of the situation with social orphanhood The use of this index allowed us to classify all regions not only by groups (clusters) representing a continuum of favorable shifts in the problem of social orphanhood, but also to rank them by regions. This classification, which allows to find turning points in the development of the situation with social orphans, opens up new opportunities in the search and determination of drivers and barriers for overcoming the negative phenomenon, taking into account the policy of social support in the regions.
This method makes it possible to conduct a comparative analysis of regions representing different groups according to the "auspiciousness" index of shifts in the situation with social orphanhood by ratings that reflect the system and structural aspects of development and the state of the socio-economic situation.
Additional collection of information on social policy in the region will allow to expand the possibilities of using the method of evaluating the effectiveness of social policy. Information that reflects changes in the legal framework helps to remove barriers in the development of the social sector and the development of public-private partnerships for social support of families is of particular value. The information about stimulating measures for the development of the social sphere and attract investment in the development of the social sphere is also of key importance. The regional programs and plans for the development of the social sphere, reports on the implementation are important objects of additional analysis within the proposed typology of regions. They offer considerable opportunities for removing barriers of increasing the effectiveness of social support for families.
Therefore, it is planned to supplement this method of assessing the effectiveness of social policies to overcome social orphanhood by developing a specific number of common contours of regional strategies in choosing the desired measures depending on a particular and contextual scenario.
affecting the sustainable development of the region. Modern Journal of Language